The last article sounded rather pessimistic about China’s future. But there’s a head to every tail, or yin to yang, given the topic this article is about. Therefore, today I will explore a more optimistic scenario for China’s future.

China can draw from several strengths in its competition with the United States:

  • education
  • research advancements
  • rapid development of high-end tech sectors
  • social cohesion
  • determination shaped by historical experience

Let’s go through them one by one.

Education

Chinese universities are producing top talent. It’s not just higher education that is top-notch. Chinese pupils beat their Western counterparts in all scientific fields, especially math. In the US and Europe, everybody hates math and takes it as a necessary evil. Math courses are underwhelming and underattended even at universities here, which is something I witnessed personally when I was doing my physics degree.

Research advancements

Given the superior education and motivation to do science, it’s no surprise China is leaping ahead of the West in fundamental research. Whether in the number of released scientific papers or other metrics, China is establishing a global standing in fields where it was an underdog just a few years ago. Yes, Western universities are still at the top, but if you look at who’s doing the cutting-edge stuff, it’s often Chinese students, either from China proper or children of Chinese immigrants!

Rapid development of high-end tech sectors

Not long ago, Chinese cars were laughed at here in Europe. Well, no one is laughing anymore. Contempt has been replaced by panic as European automakers realize how far behind they are in EVs compared to Chinese brands. Europe addressed this in a typical fashion. Instead of investing more in R&D, it raised tariffs on Chinese cars. How typical of the atrophied EU bureaucracy.

I have a strong suspicion that the next big sector where China will leap ahead of the West is semiconductors. Given their utilization in modern electronics and AI, this will be bigger than autos.

Social cohesion

COVID-19 riots made the news, and everybody stressed how groundbreaking it was that Chinese citizens dared to challenge authorities. What the media did not say is how long the population endured severe restrictions on basically everything. Given the complaints here in Europe, we wouldn’t bear such rules for more than a week.

When you talk in person with someone from China, they tend to defend the Chinese system. Even those who are not exactly fans of the CCP cite social unity as the most important principle that stands above everything else.

You can dismiss these arguments as bullshit since basically no one tends to criticize their own team because, well, they are part of that team. But honestly, I believe them.

Determination shaped by historical experience

The reason I believe these claims is that China has an incredibly bad historical experience with internal conflicts. These struggles eventually led China to close itself off from the world. Unlike Japan, which recognized the same mistake and started the Meiji Restoration, China did not have the same determination. This led to unequal treaties in the 19th century resulting in Western and later Japanese domination over China until the end of World War II.

This historical experience is imprinted deeply in the Chinese collective mind. And the younger generation is constantly reminded of it through state propaganda. This inhibits a willingness to prioritize the greater good over individual needs. Moreover, it makes people aware of not repeating these grave mistakes.

This drive to advance China as a nation is something that has slowly evaporated in the West. Most people here don’t care about their country anymore.

The land vs. naval power

Do all these factors negate the Chinese weaknesses I mentioned in the previous article? Of course not. I’m still convinced that China would not prevail in a direct confrontation with the United States.

It all comes down to the fact that China is a land power. Although its naval capabilities are rising, it’s never been a major naval power, except perhaps for a brief period during the Ming dynasty.

On the other hand, the United States has a long naval tradition. Yes, you could surprise even such a superpower, like Japan did at Pearl Harbor. But after mobilizing its resources, the United States would conquer the seas again and cut off China from its vital resources.

The path for Chinese victory actually lies in avoiding kinetic confrontation with the US. It should try to build alliances around the world, especially in the Global South, and exploit internal weaknesses in the US. The only way to defeat the US is from within. And as I explained at the end of this article, China is well aware of that.