Post-WW2 global order
After World War II, the United States developed a system of allies, rather than vassals, making it the de facto leader of the free world. And rightfully so. Don’t get me wrong — America never shied away from imposing its will on other countries by force (the annexation of Hawaii is my favorite example), but compared to other contemporary powers like the Soviet Union, the US has indeed been a benevolent superpower.
This global alliance based on shared democratic values became even stronger after the fall of the Soviet Union, specifically because it defeated the competing system built on communist ideology. Yet, America willfully abandoned the global order based on international law when it invaded Iraq in 2003.
Not many Americans realize how harmful the invasion of Iraq was for the US reputation in Europe. I’m personally convinced that Putin’s 2007 speech at the Munich Security Conference was mainly a reaction to this event. Later, in 2008, he felt encouraged to invade Georgia, based on the premise that if the United States could take unilateral action in violation of international law, why couldn’t Russia?
The Global Financial Crisis and the subsequent eight years of the catastrophic Obama presidency represented a visible decline in American power and its inability to enforce the old order. The Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and Xi Jinping’s Wolf Warrior diplomacy were simply reactions to US weakness.
The Trump reality check
Fast forward to 2025. JD Vance gave a reality check to European allies at the Munich Security Conference, and Trump shocked Denmark by threatening to annex Greenland. Simultaneously, Trump’s cabinet members are openly pushing for leaving NATO. But for me personally, the peak was Elon Musk’s rant against Radosław Sikorski.
I mean, if he had targeted some European bureaucratic wimp, it would still be disrespectful, but at least it would be funny. But Radek Sikorski? Oh, come on!
On the positive side, Trump’s threats seemed to have finally pushed the EU to get its act together. Friedrich Merz won the Bundestag elections and proposed a combined €1T package for defense and infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, Donald Tusk openly advocated that Poland should acquire its own nuclear weapons.
Today, the attitude across Europe is defiant. We have finally gotten ourselves together and are ready to stick it to Trump and Russia. Europe will be great again, and America will regret abandoning its European allies once China confronts it in the Pacific.
Burn it down
…or maybe not.
Everyone is so blinded by ideology that it prevents them from assessing the situation objectively. The fact is, the US federal budget deficit is unsustainable. Something has to be done. Yes, a methodical approach based on a thorough analysis of government spending would be best. Instead, Trump decided to “burn it down.” In a healthy government, that would be catastrophic. However, the US government is bloated with waste and inefficiencies — not to mention the commie stuff like DEI. While the scorched-earth tactic will lead to collateral damage, the overall net effect will be immensely positive. Ideally, the private sector will replace the government as the primary source of economic growth. The accompanying deregulation will significantly help.
Meanwhile, in Europe, Germans are talking about kickstarting their industry with a huge fiscal package. Brits are talking too, and so are the French. The only nations actually doing something are Poland and the Baltic states.
At the same time, European demographics remain horrible, its energy policy is an utter failure, and bureaucracy is ballooning. These are the things that really matter, and nothing has changed in this regard! A few years ago during COVID, I said that Europe is fucked, and the only thing that might give me a glimmer of hope is hearing Frans Timmermans give a fiery speech urging everyone to start fracking across Europe. So far, I’m still waiting.
Fuck around, find out
Trump is burning down not only the US bureaucracy but also US alliances around the world. Everyone, especially in Europe, is loudly proclaiming that Trump is “fucking around” and that the US is going to “find out” how vulnerable it is without its allies.
I have a different opinion. What if superior geography, demographics, and innovation unleash the full potential of the US Empire? Yes, arguably a much less democratic country than its founders envisioned, but more powerful than ever. Ancient Rome also saw its greatest expansion under the Empire, not the Republic.
What if Americans realize that instead of politely asking their partners to do something for decades, coercing or outright forcing them yields immediate results? Everyone is freaking out about US threats to annex Canada or Greenland, yet no one is seriously considering why they could actually do it — and why no one would be able to stop them.
So, will the US ever “find out”? Yes, eventually. No empire lasts forever. Abandoning the “benevolent” trait and behaving like a true empire ensures that the US will die like one.
When it comes to the embodiment of pure imperialism, it’s not Rome that first comes to my mind, but ancient Assyria. And when Xenophon of Athens encountered the ruins of Nineveh with its massive walls around 401 BC, no one remembered the civilization that built it. Not even the locals knew. Such thorough was the destruction of the hated Assyrian Empire mere 200 years ago.